Half-PPR redraft rankings with tiers. The tier breaks matter more than the numbers — that's where the real decisions are.
| Rank | Tier | Player | Pos | Team | Bye | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1 · Elite | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 11 | The 1.01 floor argument is closed. |
| 2 | T1 · Elite | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 7 | Target share locked above 30%. |
| 3 | T1 · Elite | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 9 | Goal-line work is the only swing. |
| 4 | T1 · Elite | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 13 | QB ambiguity priced in. |
| 5 | T1 · Elite | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 10 | Health flag at the price. |
| 6 | T2 · Cornerstone | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 9 | The safest non-elite WR. |
| 7 | T2 · Cornerstone | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 5 | Workload at the goal line is unreal. |
| 8 | T2 · Cornerstone | Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | 6 | Year-three target tree question. |
| 9 | T2 · Cornerstone | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 9 | Age curve hits harder than market thinks. |
| 10 | T2 · Cornerstone | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 6 | Lower aDOT? Still league-winning. |
| 11 | T2 · Cornerstone | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 6 | 15-touch usage now confirmed. |
| 12 | T3 · WR1 Core | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 5 | Discount on volume volatility. |
| 13 | T1 · QB Elite | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 12 | Rushing floor is the cheat code. |
| 14 | T3 · RB1 Core | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 10 | Pass-game usage offsets line concerns. |
| 15 | T3 · WR1 Core | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 10 | Target hog regardless of QB. |
| 16 | T1 · TE Elite | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 9 | Red zone share leads the position. |
| 17 | T1 · QB Elite | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 14 | Designed runs unsustainable but priced in. |
| 18 | T3 · WR1 Core | Drake London | WR | ATL | 11 | Year-four target share spike incoming. |
| 19 | T3 · RB1 Core | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 14 | Age 33, but the workload is age 28. |
| 20 | T3 · WR1 Core | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 7 | Year-five target share top 5 in NFL. |
| 21 | T1 · TE Elite | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 11 | Targets matched only by LaPorta. |
| 22 | T1 · QB Elite | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 14 | Floor + ceiling combo unmatched. |
| 23 | T4 · RB2 | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 6 | Volume king. Efficiency capped. |
| 24 | T4 · WR2 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | 11 | Year-two leap incoming. |
| 25 | T4 · WR2 | DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 9 | QB room is the only flag. |
A bottom-up projection of usage (snap, target, carry share) multiplied by efficiency, with situation-adjusted regression toward career baselines.
Players are grouped into tiers, then sorted within. Drafting within a tier is a coin flip — drafting across one is a real decision.
Updated every Friday during the season, with mid-week tweaks for major news. Version history kept publicly so you can audit how takes have moved.